Moody’s guide to every Melbourne Cup runner
NOT sure if the horse you've been dealt in the sweep is any good? Let former Black Caviar trainer Peter Moody set you straight.
Aiming to become the first horse since Makybe Diva to win back-to-back Melbourne Cups. That's not out of the question, but I can't get him as short as his current price. Has run well without ever really looking like the winner in good company at his last three runs and I'm not convinced he can to win with the top weight.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has attracted solid support, with last year's winner backed from $16 into $13. He currently accounts for just under 5 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold and that support is expected to continue today.
MER DE GLACE
The way he put away his rivals in the Caulfield Cup was outstanding and he is a stayer who continues to improve at each run. No jockey in the country riding with more confidence than Damian Lane and the distance does not seem as though it will be an issue. He should be in the finish.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Easily the best-backed runner with Ladbrokes. He has been $8 into $6.50 since the barrier draw and he now accounts for over 28 per cent of the hold. One bet of $15,000 at $6.50 is the biggest on the race so far.
MASTER OF REALITY
Purchased by the Macedon Lodge team and you can never rule out Lloyd Williams in the Melbourne Cup. The Frankel gelding won in Ireland this year and finished a gallant third in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. Disappointing in the Irish St Leger last start and is another who has found their right mark in betting.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has been one of the biggest drifters in betting and is now out to $26, after opening at $15. The combination of Lloyd Williams, Frankie Dettori and Joseph O'Brien could see that change this afternoon.
Looks excellent value. Raced well without winning in strong company in the UK before running a gallant third behind Mer De Glace and Vow And Declare in the Caulfield Cup. He has definitely been the forgotten horse and there is no way that he should be as long as his current price.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Despite an excellent run in the Caulfield Cup, he has been virtually friendless with Ladbrokes. It would not surprise to see him start the race at even longer odds.
Has done plenty of racing in 2019 and his victory in the Irish St Leger Trial was full of merit. Beat Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment home in the Irish St Leger but I'm not sure he is in well at the weights. He has found his right odds at the current price.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Rock solid at the $26 mark and was relatively popular in futures betting. One Ladbrokes punter has had $2000 at $26 and he has attracted a number of similar bets.
A tough win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and has form around some of the best horses in the world. Consistency is his issue and he doesn't win out of turn, but there is no doubt he is capable on his day. Needs to go to another level to be a genuine winning chance.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has drifted from $34 out to $41 and hasn't been particularly popular, apart from one very big bet, with one Ladbrokes punter having $5000 each way on him at $34 to win and $11 to place.
Latrobe returns to Australia for the first time since he finished a close second in last year's Mackinnon Stakes. Has been mostly disappointing since then and was handily beaten by a number of his rivals today in the Irish St Leger. He would need to bounce back to his best to be a genuine chance.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has been $19 out to $21 since the final field was released and is one punters seem happy to ignore. He currently accounts for just over 1 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold.
The Ebor Handicap has proven to be a strong form reference for the Melbourne Cup in recent years and he beat a number of today's rivals in that race earlier this year. Ran well in the Caulfield Cup but will be better suited here and he is another horse who can't be discounted.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has attracted solid support since his tough run in the Caulfield Cup and that has continued over the weekend. He has been $21 into $18 and accounts for just under 5 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold.
Finished a gallant fourth in the Melbourne Cup 12 months ago, but his form this campaign has been fairly poor. He finished a credible seventh first-up in the Makybe Diva before he produced very flat efforts in both the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. It is impossible to back him off those performances.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Ladbrokes will be cheering for Rostropovich as he has been completely unwanted in betting. Last year's fifth placegetter has been $51 out to $81 since the final field was released.
Looked to be heading in the right direction with consecutive wins in Ireland but he was disappointing in the Irish St Leger. He is probably a level just below some of the other internationals in this field and there is a reason that he is at such juicy odds.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has been one of the best-backed roughies with Ladbrokes. He opened at $91, but there has been consistent support and he is now into $51. One Ladbrokes punter has had $1000 each way at $51.
Has been one of the favourites for some time and he goes in with a genuine chance. His run in the Turnbull Stakes was brilliant, but I would have liked to see him find the line a little bit better in the Caulfield Cup. There is no doubt Flemington is a better track for him and he does map to get a lovely run.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has attracted strong support all spring and he is one of Ladbrokes' worst results in the race. He currently accounts for just over 10 per cent of the total hold, behind only Mer De Glace.
PRINCE OF ARRAN
On his international form, he would be one of the outsiders but he goes to another level in Australian racing conditions. His first-up run in the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes was excellent before a tough victory in the Geelong Cup. Was third in this race 12 months ago and there is no reason he can't replicate that effort today.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: A popular horse in Australia and that has continued into the Melbourne Cup this year. He has been $21 into $18 and should continue to shorten.
It has been a while since he recorded a race win and on paper his form doesn't looked overly impressive. Cross Counter easily had his measure in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and he was soundly beaten in the Ebor Handicap. He meets a number of his rivals better at the weights though and can't be completely discounted.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: One Ladbrokes punter will be in for a big result if Raymond Tusk wins. They had $450 on a Lys Gracieux/Raymond Tusk Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double at $217. Got into as short as $13 after the barrier draw, but now out to $20.
Earned his place with a very impressive effort in the Hotham Stakes on Saturday. He finished second behind Southern France in the Irish St Leger Trial and he wasn't disgraced in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. I expect him to run well again, but I think that the market may have overreacted to his Hotham Stakes victory.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Was $51 before he won the Hotham Stakes and got as short as $15 before drifting again to $21. A number of experts have tipped him and he could shorten again.
One of the most interesting runners who is never far away at Group 1 level and I think she is a serious winning chance. She was a little flat-footed when they sprinted in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate but was able to grind away for fourth. She has never raced over 3200m before but gives the impression it will not be an issue.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: The Ryan Moore/Aidan O'Brien combination hasn't been enough to inspire any punter confidence in Magic Wand. She got out to $26 after drawing the car park and is now into $21.
Has not fired in Australia and hasn't finished better than seventh in any of his race starts this campaign. His runs in both The Metropolitan and the Geelong Cup were particularly poor. It is safe to say that he is making up the numbers.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: The extreme outsider in the Melbourne Cup. He has been $126 out to $151 and no horse has been less popular with Ladbrokes punters.
Another who has never really settled in to Australia. He ran well in both the Tancred Stakes and the Sydney Cup in the autumn but never really looked like a winning chance in the Makybe Diva Stakes, Turnbull Stakes or the Caulfield Cup this campaign. A top 10 finish would be a great result.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Another extreme outsider who has been virtually friendless. One punter had a bet at $126 and he is now back into $101.
Purchased for only $5000 as a yearling and now has the chance to win the Melbourne Cup. Showed his quality with a strong win in the Adelaide Cup. His win in The Bart Cummings was excellent and there is no doubt he has upside. The 3200m will suit but I am not sure he is good enough to compete with the best internationals.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Popular in futures betting early in the spring, but has been a bit easy over the past couple of weeks. Still accounts for over 5 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold and is the fairytale story in the race.
Was the favourite before the barrier draw and is another horse who can't be discounted. There is little doubt that he would have finished in the placings with even luck in the Caulfield Cup and he really should take good improvement from that performance. I can't get him as short as his current odds, but he definitely has to be respected.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Has been $7 out to $8.50 since the barrier draw, but still very well supported. There was plenty of big money for him following his luckless run in the Caulfield Cup and he accounts for over 9 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold.
Well supported in betting and does have a similar profile to the past two winners of the race in Rekindling and Cross Counter. His run in the Lonsdale Cup was full of merit before he was a bit disappointing when fifth in the St Leger. Has the right profile but he would need to go to a whole new peak to be a genuine winning chance.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Ladbrokes have kept him very safe in betting. He was $61 in August and is now into $14.
Earned his place with a win in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May but hasn't had an ideal preparation this time. His first two runs this campaign were both solid, but he was scratched at the barriers before the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes and was flat in the Geelong Cup. It is tough to back him off that effort.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: It has been a spring to remember for Anthony Freedman, but there still hasn't been any support for Steel Prince. He remains at $67 and accounts for less than 1 per cent of the Ladbrokes hold.
THE CHOSEN ONE
Soundly beaten in the Hotham Stakes on Saturday. He looked to be heading in the right direction when he won the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes and wasn't disgraced in the Caulfield Cup, but his Hotham effort was very flat. It is tough to see him being a genuine factor.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Was as short as $21 following his win in the Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes, but he is now out to $81 following a very flat effort in Saturday's Hotham Stakes.
VOW AND DECLARE
He is my selection to win the Melbourne Cup. Has improved with each run this campaign and looks ready to peak. He ran the fastest closing 200m in the race when second in the Caulfield Cup and the step up to 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He might be the best stayer we have produced in a number of years.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Was $151 in Melbourne Cup betting in June and has been consistently supported at big odds since then. Now into $11 and Ladbrokes expect him to start at single figures.
Finished a gallant sixth behind Cross Counter last year but it has been a long time between wins and she really hasn't impressed this campaign. Unplaced at her first four runs this campaign before she finished third in the St Leger. That simply isn't good enough form to win a Melbourne Cup.
Ladbrokes Late Mail: Ran well in this race 12 months ago and she has been backed from $61 into $31 since the final field was announced. One of the best backed roughies in the race.